Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 0.010050 0.011351 0.012758 0.014393 0.016242 0.018269 0.020660
2025-12-07 0.007675 0.009392 0.011404 0.013937 0.017044 0.020737 0.025465
2025-12-14 0.006422 0.008301 0.010627 0.013720 0.017733 0.022775 0.029606
2025-12-21 0.005464 0.007385 0.009871 0.013329 0.018027 0.024205 0.032973
2025-12-28 0.005032 0.007071 0.009815 0.013784 0.019397 0.027078 0.038436
2026-01-04 0.004622 0.006725 0.009654 0.014042 0.020475 0.029600 0.043596
2026-01-11 0.004302 0.006461 0.009565 0.014367 0.021643 0.032307 0.049225
2026-01-18 0.003915 0.006053 0.009218 0.014262 0.022139 0.034039 0.053514
2026-01-25 0.003605 0.005728 0.008957 0.014247 0.022747 0.035957 0.058218
2026-02-01 0.003285 0.005355 0.008584 0.014014 0.022974 0.037276 0.062047
2026-02-08 0.003073 0.005132 0.008424 0.014099 0.023704 0.039434 0.067404
2026-02-15 0.002845 0.004862 0.008162 0.013986 0.024086 0.041031 0.071925
2026-02-22 0.002718 0.004754 0.008165 0.014330 0.025288 0.044132 0.079375
2026-03-01 0.002465 0.004409 0.007738 0.013893 0.025093 0.044809 0.082591
2026-03-08 0.002276 0.004158 0.007452 0.013676 0.025261 0.046122 0.087046
2026-03-15 0.002079 0.003878 0.007090 0.013287 0.025074 0.046767 0.090290
2026-03-22 0.002022 0.003849 0.007179 0.013740 0.026491 0.050471 0.099681
2026-03-29 0.001943 0.003770 0.007168 0.013997 0.027550 0.053577 0.108159
2026-04-05 0.001877 0.003712 0.007191 0.014321 0.028761 0.057061 0.117682
2026-04-12 0.001764 0.003553 0.007006 0.014217 0.029105 0.058858 0.123895
2026-04-19 0.001670 0.003425 0.006871 0.014201 0.029625 0.061041 0.131090
2026-04-26 0.001561 0.003255 0.006640 0.013969 0.029673 0.062255 0.136309
2026-05-03 0.001492 0.003165 0.006564 0.014054 0.030395 0.064923 0.144912